Systems in Statistical Mechanics have a big amount of molecules interacting with each other. As a result, its corresponding phase space is equally large. One must know how to work through large amounts of data.
Assume there is a test that has a 50% chance to detect hidden colorectal cancer (cancer assuming the patient has no symptoms). The probability of a sample of people to have colorrectal cancer is 0.3 percent. Id the person has no colorectal cancel there is still a 3 percent of a positive result. What is the probability of a person from that sample to have colorectal cancer?
Consider Bayes' Theorem
also written as
For cases where
Given two events with probabilities we get that
Approximation by: Given for big enough n () we get that:
The 2D Ising model is a simple model of a ferromagnetic material with phase transition. It consists of a 2D lattice of spins . Each spin interacts only with its nearest neighbours. The energy is expressed as:
This is the Ising model.
Considering normalized energy with , spin with , magnetic field with for the exchange energy and the atomic magnetic moments. When the system is in contact with a heat bath a temperature T, the equilibrium probability density is the Boltzmann distribution:
Where the partition function is over all possible configurations.
The phase space is very large, what can we do now?
Stochastic process: Time dependent random process dependant of random variables.
Markov chain: Given a set of states , and a choice for , the process starts and moves sucessively from one state to the other with a probability , which is only dependent upon its previous event. Each move is called a step. Its Markov Chain of t is defined as the state of the system in a time , starting at and moving w steps with a probability where and is given.
Now you have a system that has a certain set of states . Each of those states has an associated probability . You don't know that, but you can calculate the ratio . You want a sample with the property that as , the amount of times we get state i divided by the sample size approaches unity
Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithim: Also called Metropolis Algorithm. Used to obtain the value knowing , which approaches for . It goes like this:
Initiate the sequence of samples in a state .
If is the current state, propose a new state according to a conditional probability distro. , namely is the probability of proposing given that the current state is .
Accept the proposed state, add it as the next state in the sample sequence with probability:
\begin{equation} A(\sigma \vert \sigma') = min\left(1,\frac{\sigma}{\sigma'}\right) \end{equation}
If the state is not accepted, (i.e. it is rejected), add the current state to your sequence as the next state. Repeat for a large number of states.